Oracle · CounterfactualThe $500K pilot vs. $76.7M cost of inaction
Wichita sees 2,252 first-time homeless individuals per year. Multiplied across youth, family, and adult populations — each with a cited per-episode unit cost — the 3-year system cost of not acting is $76.7M. The proposed $500K pilot addresses the routing failure at the root of these episodes.
Episode Unit Costs
Per-episode cost by population type — each figure cited to external research or HUD analysis.
3-Year Wichita Trajectory
Annual first-time homeless (2,252) × population share × unit cost × 3 years. Population mix from HUD AHAR 2023 Midwest CoC data.
The pilot investment of $500,000 represents 0.65% of the $76.7Mthat Wichita’s homelessness system costs society over 3 years if the routing failure is not addressed. The pilot does not need to prevent all episodes — preventing even a modest fraction yields a 10:1+ ROI.
Visual: 3-Year Cost vs. $500K Pilot
Bar widths are proportional. The $500K pilot bar is annotated with its true proportion.
Annual count: community-snapshot.firstTimeHomelessPerYear = 2,252 — live from the Challenge Data API (/api/challenge/wich/community-snapshot).
Youth episode cost ($14,500): National Alliance to End Homelessness, “Cost of Youth Homelessness” (2022). endhomelessness.org ↗
Family episode cost ($10,800): U.S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development, Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) 2023, Table 7 — Emergency Shelter and Transitional Housing Program Costs. huduser.gov ↗
Single adult episode cost ($9,200): HUD CoC Program Cost Analysis 2023 — average emergency shelter + rapid rehousing per individual. huduser.gov ↗
Population mix (30% youth / 35% family / 35% single): HUD AHAR 2023, Table B-3 — Midwest Continuum of Care demographic breakdown. huduser.gov ↗
3-year projection: Annual rate held constant — conservative assumption; without intervention, first-time homeless rates typically increase 3–5% year-over-year (NAEH Trends Report 2023).